Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ White Sox KC @ CHW

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

19-24  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, May 14 • 7:40 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

21-21  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sean Newcomb
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Newcomb

#15 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Lucas Erceg None-None 3.63 -- 1.0 1
Sean Newcomb None-None 2.81 -- 2.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.63 ERA Ldr 2.81
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
0%
📊
WHITE SOX
100%
ROYALS --
WHITE SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

40.1%

White Sox Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHW +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

KC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

16.3%

CHW By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CHW By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
7
KANSAS CITY
6
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim White Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI White Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim White Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 CHW @ KC 9 - 1
Sep 23, 2026 CHW @ KC 4 - 5
Sep 22, 2026 CHW @ KC 14 - 11
Jun 28, 2026 KC @ CHW 5 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 KC @ CHW 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.718
OPS
▲ .826
170 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.4% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Errors (L5) +65.3% more
Kansas City: 1.2 vs Chicago: 0.4
Walks (L5) +12.1% more
Kansas City: 4.5 vs Chicago: 3.9
Home Runs (L5) +47.8% more
Chicago: 1.7 vs Kansas City: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 7.0 2
CHW Score 6.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 7.5 8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 8.8 5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 12.7 12.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.9 / 4.5 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
KC
CHW
KC
ML
49% 81-86
55% 89-72
56% 94-73
56% 90-70
ATS
59% 99-68
57% 91-70
56% 93-74
58% 93-67
TTL
58% 96-69-2
58% 90-64-7
51% 84-81-2
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 1 hour, 38 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 1 hour, 45 minutes ago
White Sox Eye ALDS Sweep Over Guardians in Game 3 Showdown
yahoo 1 day, 13 hours ago
MLB Division Series: All Four Could End Today for First Time Sin…
si 1 day, 13 hours ago
Sean Burke's Relief Masterclass Puts White Sox on Brink of ALCS
yahoo 1 day, 19 hours ago