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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

19-24  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, May 14 • 1:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

17-25  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Brenan Hanifee
STARTING PITCHER

Brenan Hanifee

#75 | Relief Pitcher
@
Nolan McLean
STARTING PITCHER

Nolan McLean

#26 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brenan Hanifee None-None 1.08 -- 1.0 --
Nolan McLean None-None 2.92 -- 7.0 7
None-None W-L None-None
1.08 Ldr ERA 2.92
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
METS
0%
TIGERS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

40.1%

Mets Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

DET By 1-2 runs

16.3%

DET By 3-4 runs

10.6%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
DETROIT
5
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 14, 2026 DET @ NYM 4 - 9
May 13, 2026 DET @ NYM 2 - 3
May 12, 2026 DET @ NYM 2 - 10
Sep 3, 2025 NYM @ DET 2 - 6
Sep 2, 2025 NYM @ DET 12 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.241 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.720 ▲
OPS
.705
181
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +19.9% more
New York: 4.0 vs Detroit: 3.4
Home Runs (Season) +12.7% more
New York: 204.0 vs Detroit: 181.0
Errors (L5) +8.0% more
New York: 0.8 vs Detroit: 0.7
Home Runs (L5) +24.0% more
Detroit: 0.4 vs New York: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 4.0 4
NYM Score 5.0 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.5 / 8.1 10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.2 / 0.4 5.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 9.4 9.0 / 2.0
Total Bases 9.6 / 11.8 25.0 / 14.0
Walks 4.0 / 3.4 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
DET
NYM
DET
ML
50% 79-80
54% 86-73
48% 76-83
54% 87-73
ATS
58% 93-66
64% 101-58
49% 78-81
57% 91-69
TTL
55% 80-66-13
46% 69-81-9
51% 74-72-13
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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