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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

17-26  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, May 14 • 12:35 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

23-20  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Juan Mejia
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Mejia

#47 | Relief Pitcher
@
Yohan Ramirez
STARTING PITCHER

Yohan Ramirez

#49 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Juan Mejia None-None 4.43 -- 1.0 1
Yohan Ramirez None-None 3.96 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.43 ERA Ldr 3.96
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
100%
📊
PIRATES
0%
ROCKIES --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pittsburgh)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

40.1%

Pirates Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

COL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

COL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

PIT By 1-2 runs

19.6%

PIT By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
COLORADO
6
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
5
COLORADO
7
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pirates Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Pirates (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 21, 2026 PIT @ COL 8 - 6
Jun 20, 2026 PIT @ COL 1 - 2
Jun 19, 2026 PIT @ COL 3 - 4
May 14, 2026 COL @ PIT 2 - 7
May 13, 2026 COL @ PIT 10 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.64
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.253
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.739 ▲
OPS
.734
180
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +19.5% more
Pittsburgh: 7.1 vs Colorado: 5.9
Home Runs (Season) +3.3% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0 vs Colorado: 180.0
Runs per Game (Season) +1.9% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7 vs Colorado: 4.6
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.8%
Pittsburgh: 33.0% vs Colorado: 32.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 5.0 2
PIT Score 6.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 8.0 12.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 5.9 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.3 / 14.1 18.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.1 / 3.2 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
COL
PIT
COL
ML
52% 82-77
60% 97-64
52% 85-78
55% 88-73
ATS
54% 86-73
60% 97-64
50% 81-82
52% 83-78
TTL
47% 72-81-6
60% 93-62-6
50% 79-78-6
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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