Home / NHL Projections NHL / Golden Knights @ Ducks VGK @ ANA

VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

39-26-17  |  Road

5
FINAL
Thu, May 14 • 9:30 PM ET
Honda Center
View Odds Details →

ANAHEIM

DUCKSANA

43-33-6  |  Home

1
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
100%
📊
DUCKS
0%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS --
DUCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ANAHEIM
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Anaheim)
Golden KnightsVGK (-3.5) 0 DucksANA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Knights Cover

15.9%

Ducks Cover

84.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around ANA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ANA)

VGK By 1 goal

6.6%

VGK By 2-3 goals

3.7%

ANA By 1 goal

17.5%

ANA By 2-3 goals

37.2%

AI Model Projected Score
1
VEGAS
3
ANAHEIM
Simulated Score
2
VEGAS
4
ANAHEIM
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ducks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ducks Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ducks (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Ducks (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Push
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 2, 2026 ANA @ VGK 4 - 3
May 14, 2026 VGK @ ANA 5 - 1
May 10, 2026 VGK @ ANA 3 - 4
May 8, 2026 VGK @ ANA 6 - 2
May 6, 2026 ANA @ VGK 3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +30.6% more
Anaheim: 38.3 vs Vegas: 29.3
Takeaways (L5) +26.7% more
Vegas: 5.9 vs Anaheim: 4.3
Power Play % (L5) +21.9%
Vegas: 22.6% vs Anaheim: 0.7%
Faceoff % (L5) +5.9%
Vegas: 53.3% vs Anaheim: 47.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VGK Score 1.0 5
ANA Score 3.0 1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
55%MONEY45%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ANA
VGK
ANA
VGK
ML
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
TTL
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
0% 0-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Canadiens Turn to Rookie Jacob Fowler in Net Against Predators; …
yardbarker 7 hours, 39 minutes ago
Canadiens Accused of Showcasing Kirby Dach as Trade Rumors Swirl
yardbarker 7 hours, 51 minutes ago
Steelers Bolster Secondary with Addition of Veteran Cornerback S…
si 1 day, 1 hour ago
Canadiens Call Up Jacob Fowler After Samuel Montembeault Injury …
yardbarker 1 day, 1 hour ago
Flyers Land Michael Bunting in Bid to Stop Early Season Skid
yourvalley_net 2 days, 1 hour ago