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NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

27-16  |  Road

0
FINAL
Wed, May 13 • 1:05 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

19-24  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Ryan Yarbrough
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Yarbrough

#33 | Relief Pitcher
@
Yennier Cano
STARTING PITCHER

Yennier Cano

#78 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryan Yarbrough None-None 3.45 -- 3.0 4
Yennier Cano None-None 1.13 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.45 ERA Ldr 1.13
-- WHIP --
3.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
100%
📊
ORIOLES
0%
YANKEES --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Baltimore)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

22.7%

Orioles Cover

77.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

NYY By 1-2 runs

10.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

5.4%

BAL By 1-2 runs

18.4%

BAL By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
NEW YORK
6
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Orioles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Orioles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 25, 2026 BAL @ NYY 3 - 6
Aug 20, 2026 NYY @ BAL 6 - 1
Aug 19, 2026 NYY @ BAL 5 - 3
Aug 18, 2026 NYY @ BAL 3 - 1
May 13, 2026 NYY @ BAL 0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Baltimore BAL
1
Games Played
▲ 161
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
1.041 ▲
OPS
.711
2
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +9850.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs New York: 2.0
Walks (L5) +47.0% more
Baltimore: 4.4 vs New York: 3.0
Home Runs (L5) +68.5% more
New York: 1.3 vs Baltimore: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season) +50.4% more
New York: 9.0 vs Baltimore: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 3.0 0
BAL Score 6.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.9 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 5.8 / 7.2 10.0 / 1.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 9.2 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 9.0 / 12.4 14.0 / 2.0
Walks 4.4 / 3.0 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
95%MONEY5%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
NYY
BAL
NYY
ML
53% 83-73
47% 76-85
57% 90-69
52% 85-77
ATS
61% 95-60-1
59% 95-66
57% 90-68-1
53% 86-76
TTL
54% 81-70-5
53% 81-73-7
51% 78-75-6
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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