Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ White Sox KC @ CHW

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

19-23  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, May 13 • 7:40 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

20-21  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Alex Lange
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Lange

#56 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sean Newcomb
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Newcomb

#15 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Alex Lange None-None 5.49 -- 1.0 1
Sean Newcomb None-None 3.04 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
5.49 ERA Ldr 3.04
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
0%
📊
WHITE SOX
100%
ROYALS --
WHITE SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Kansas City)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

69.1%

White Sox Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

18.4%

CHW By 1-2 runs

13.6%

CHW By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
7
KANSAS CITY
5
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim White Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim White Sox (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 CHW @ KC 9 - 1
Sep 23, 2026 CHW @ KC 4 - 5
Sep 22, 2026 CHW @ KC 14 - 11
Jun 28, 2026 KC @ CHW 5 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 KC @ CHW 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.718
OPS
▲ .826
170 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.4% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Walks (L5) +38.9% more
Kansas City: 4.7 vs Chicago: 2.9
Hits (L5) +17.3% more
Kansas City: 8.8 vs Chicago: 7.3
Strikeouts (L5) +15.4% more
Kansas City: 9.2 vs Chicago: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 7.0 5
CHW Score 5.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.8 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.3 / 8.8 10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 1.2 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 9.2 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.0 / 14.6 16.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.9 / 4.7 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
KC
CHW
KC
ML
49% 81-86
55% 89-72
56% 94-73
56% 90-70
ATS
59% 99-68
57% 91-70
56% 93-74
58% 93-67
TTL
58% 96-69-2
58% 90-64-7
51% 84-81-2
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 1 hour, 37 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 1 hour, 44 minutes ago
White Sox Eye ALDS Sweep Over Guardians in Game 3 Showdown
yahoo 1 day, 13 hours ago
MLB Division Series: All Four Could End Today for First Time Sin…
si 1 day, 13 hours ago
Sean Burke's Relief Masterclass Puts White Sox on Brink of ALCS
yahoo 1 day, 19 hours ago