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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

16-26  |  Road

10
FINAL
Wed, May 13 • 6:40 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

23-19  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Brennan Bernardino
STARTING PITCHER

Brennan Bernardino

#83 | Relief Pitcher
@
Mitch Keller
STARTING PITCHER

Mitch Keller

#23 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brennan Bernardino None-None 3.38 -- 1.0 --
Mitch Keller None-None 3.59 -- 5.2 3
None-None W-L None-None
3.38 Ldr ERA 3.59
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.2
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
100%
📊
PIRATES
0%
ROCKIES --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Pittsburgh)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

15.9%

Pirates Cover

84.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

COL By 1-2 runs

7.8%

COL By 3-4 runs

3.5%

PIT By 1-2 runs

16.3%

PIT By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
COLORADO
7
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
6
COLORADO
8
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pirates Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim Pirates (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 14.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 21, 2026 PIT @ COL 8 - 6
Jun 20, 2026 PIT @ COL 1 - 2
Jun 19, 2026 PIT @ COL 3 - 4
May 14, 2026 COL @ PIT 2 - 7
May 13, 2026 COL @ PIT 10 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.64
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.253
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.739 ▲
OPS
.734
180
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +44.2% more
Pittsburgh: 9.4 vs Colorado: 6.5
Total Bases (L5) +42.4% more
Pittsburgh: 14.4 vs Colorado: 10.1
Strikeouts (L5) +27.2% more
Pittsburgh: 8.1 vs Colorado: 6.4
Home Runs (L5) +18.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.8 vs Colorado: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.0 10
PIT Score 7.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.4 / 6.5 6.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.6 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 6.4 5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 14.4 / 10.1 11.0 / 22.0
Walks 2.2 / 3.3 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
COL
PIT
COL
ML
52% 82-77
60% 97-64
52% 85-78
55% 88-73
ATS
54% 86-73
60% 97-64
50% 81-82
52% 83-78
TTL
47% 72-81-6
60% 93-62-6
50% 79-78-6
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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