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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

20-22  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, May 13 • 6:45 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

17-24  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Tim Mayza
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Mayza

#37 | Relief Pitcher
@
Aroldis Chapman
STARTING PITCHER

Aroldis Chapman

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tim Mayza None-None 3.27 -- 1.0 --
Aroldis Chapman None-None 0.66 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
3.27 ERA Ldr 0.66
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
0%
📊
RED SOX
100%
PHILLIES --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

40.1%

Red Sox Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

PHI By 3-4 runs

16.3%

BOS By 1-2 runs

16.3%

BOS By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5
PHILADELPHIA
4
BOSTON
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Red Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 14, 2026 PHI @ BOS 3 - 1
May 13, 2026 PHI @ BOS 1 - 3
May 12, 2026 PHI @ BOS 2 - 1
Jul 23, 2025 BOS @ PHI 9 - 8
Jul 22, 2025 BOS @ PHI 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Boston BOS
2
Games Played
2
3.50 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.286 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.724 ▲
OPS
.409
3 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +73.5% more
Philadelphia: 1.9 vs Boston: 0.5
Runs per Game (Season) +71.4% more
Philadelphia: 3.5 vs Boston: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +38.1% more
Philadelphia: 15.7 vs Boston: 9.7
OPS (Season) +31.5%
Philadelphia: 72.4% vs Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 5.0 1
BOS Score 4.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.0 / 8.6 8.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.9 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 9.5 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 9.7 / 15.7 14.0 / 6.0
Walks 2.6 / 1.7 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
PHI
BOS
PHI
ML
50% 80-80
59% 97-67
47% 76-87
49% 80-84
ATS
58% 93-67
65% 107-57
48% 79-84
51% 83-81
TTL
46% 72-83-5
57% 88-67-9
47% 74-83-6
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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