NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
26-16 | Road
6
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
19-23 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Kittredge
#39 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bednar | None-None | 3.50 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Andrew Kittredge | None-None | 10.80 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.50 Ldr
ERA
10.80
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
100%
ORIOLES
0%
YANKEES
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
NYY By 1-2 runs
16.3%
NYY By 3-4 runs
10.6%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
2
NEW YORK
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 25, 2026
BAL @ NYY
3 - 6
Aug 20, 2026
NYY @ BAL
6 - 1
Aug 19, 2026
NYY @ BAL
5 - 3
Aug 18, 2026
NYY @ BAL
3 - 1
May 13, 2026
NYY @ BAL
0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Baltimore
BAL
1
Games Played
▲
161
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
1.041
▲
OPS
.711
2
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+9850.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+50.4% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Baltimore: 4.5
Home Runs (L5)
+34.0% more
New York: 1.0
vs
Baltimore: 0.6
OPS (Season)
+33.0%
New York: 1.0%
vs
Baltimore: 71.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
2.0
6
BAL Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
5.7 / 6.3
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.0
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 9.8
7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
9.0 / 11.2
9.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.5 / 4.0
6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
NYY
BAL
NYY
ML
53%
83-73
47%
76-85
57%
90-69
52%
85-77
ATS
61%
95-60-1
59%
95-66
57%
90-68-1
53%
86-76
TTL
54%
81-70-5
53%
81-73-7
51%
78-75-6
53%
82-72-7
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