Home / MLB Projections MLB / Phillies @ Red Sox PHI @ BOS

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

19-22  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, May 12 • 6:45 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

17-23  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Jhoan Duran
STARTING PITCHER

Jhoan Duran

#59 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brayan Bello
STARTING PITCHER

Brayan Bello

#66 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jhoan Duran None-None 1.69 -- 1.0 2
Brayan Bello None-None 6.46 -- 6.1 5
None-None W-L None-None
1.69 Ldr ERA 6.46
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.1
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
0%
📊
RED SOX
100%
PHILLIES --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

77.3%

Red Sox Cover

22.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

18.4%

PHI By 3-4 runs

19.6%

BOS By 1-2 runs

10.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

5.4%

AI Model Projected Score
7
PHILADELPHIA
4
BOSTON
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Red Sox (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 14, 2026 PHI @ BOS 3 - 1
May 13, 2026 PHI @ BOS 1 - 3
May 12, 2026 PHI @ BOS 2 - 1
Jul 23, 2025 BOS @ PHI 9 - 8
Jul 22, 2025 BOS @ PHI 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Boston BOS
2
Games Played
2
3.50 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.286 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.724 ▲
OPS
.409
3 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +71.4% more
Philadelphia: 3.5 vs Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +67.8% more
Philadelphia: 2.3 vs Boston: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +41.8% more
Philadelphia: 19.0 vs Boston: 11.1
Hits (L5) +32.4% more
Philadelphia: 10.4 vs Boston: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 7.0 2
BOS Score 4.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.0 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.1 / 10.4 7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 2.3 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 10.7 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.1 / 19.0 7.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.9 / 2.0 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
PHI
BOS
PHI
ML
50% 80-80
59% 97-67
47% 76-87
49% 80-84
ATS
58% 93-67
65% 107-57
48% 79-84
51% 83-81
TTL
46% 72-83-5
57% 88-67-9
47% 74-83-6
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
si 1 day, 8 hours ago
Phillies' 2027 Rotation Projection: Wheeler and Sanchez Lead Sta…
si 1 day, 14 hours ago
Alex Cora Rejects Phillies Again, Opts to Sit Out 2027 Season
si 1 day, 20 hours ago
Phillies' Managerial Plans Thrown Into Disarray as Alex Cora Opt…
yardbarker 1 day, 20 hours ago
Red Sox Offseason: Roman Anthony Avoids Surgery, Power Bat Searc…
yahoo 2 days, 8 hours ago