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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

19-22  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, May 12 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

15-25  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Holton
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Holton

#87 | Relief Pitcher
@
Luis Torrens
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Torrens

#13 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Holton None-None 3.86 -- 1.1 3
Luis Torrens None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.86 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
3 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
METS
100%
TIGERS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

69.1%

Mets Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

19.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

18.4%

NYM By 1-2 runs

13.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
7
DETROIT
5
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
7
DETROIT
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Tigers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 14, 2026 DET @ NYM 4 - 9
May 13, 2026 DET @ NYM 2 - 3
May 12, 2026 DET @ NYM 2 - 10
Sep 3, 2025 NYM @ DET 2 - 6
Sep 2, 2025 NYM @ DET 12 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.241 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.720 ▲
OPS
.705
181
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +30.3% more
Detroit: 11.8 vs New York: 8.2
Hits (L5) +27.9% more
Detroit: 7.2 vs New York: 5.2
Runs per Game (Season) +3.4% more
Detroit: 4.5 vs New York: 4.3
OPS (Season) +1.5%
Detroit: 72.0% vs New York: 70.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 7.0 2
NYM Score 5.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.6 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 5.2 / 7.2 13.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 8.1 11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 8.2 / 11.8 16.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.8 / 3.1 3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
85%MONEY15%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
DET
NYM
DET
ML
50% 79-80
54% 86-73
48% 76-83
54% 87-73
ATS
58% 93-66
64% 101-58
49% 78-81
57% 91-69
TTL
55% 80-66-13
46% 69-81-9
51% 74-72-13
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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