Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Pirates COL @ PIT

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

16-25  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, May 12 • 6:40 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

22-19  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Jimmy Herget
STARTING PITCHER

Jimmy Herget

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Gregory Soto
STARTING PITCHER

Gregory Soto

#31 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jimmy Herget None-None 5.06 -- 1.0 1
Gregory Soto None-None 1.69 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
5.06 ERA Ldr 1.69
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
0%
📊
PIRATES
100%
ROCKIES --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Colorado)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

96.0%

Pirates Cover

4.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

COL By 1-2 runs

7.8%

COL By 3-4 runs

13.6%

PIT By 1-2 runs

2.2%

PIT By 3-4 runs

0.7%

AI Model Projected Score
9
COLORADO
2
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
5
COLORADO
8
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -7.0
D
Sim Pirates (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 21, 2026 PIT @ COL 8 - 6
Jun 20, 2026 PIT @ COL 1 - 2
Jun 19, 2026 PIT @ COL 3 - 4
May 14, 2026 COL @ PIT 2 - 7
May 13, 2026 COL @ PIT 10 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.64
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.253
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.739 ▲
OPS
.734
180
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +29.0% more
Colorado: 0.7 vs Pittsburgh: 0.4
Slugging Pct (Season) +1.3%
Colorado: 41.7% vs Pittsburgh: 40.4%
OPS (Season) +0.5%
Colorado: 73.9% vs Pittsburgh: 73.4%
Total Bases (L5) +33.6% more
Pittsburgh: 15.6 vs Colorado: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 9.0 1
PIT Score 2.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.7 / 7.8 9.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 6.0 10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.6 / 11.7 12.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.3 / 2.9 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
COL
PIT
COL
ML
52% 82-77
60% 97-64
52% 85-78
55% 88-73
ATS
54% 86-73
60% 97-64
50% 81-82
52% 83-78
TTL
47% 72-81-6
60% 93-62-6
50% 79-78-6
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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