MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
19-22 | Road
0
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
18-23 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Eury Perez
#39 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bailey Ober
#17 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eury Perez | None-None | 4.94 | -- | 6.0 | 8 |
| Bailey Ober | None-None | 3.46 | -- | 9.0 | 7 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.94
ERA
Ldr 3.46
--
WHIP
--
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 9.0
8 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
7
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
0%
TWINS
100%
MARLINS
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
18.4%
MIA By 3-4 runs
19.6%
MIN By 1-2 runs
10.6%
MIN By 3-4 runs
5.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
6
MIAMI
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Twins (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 14, 2026
MIA @ MIN
1 - 9
May 13, 2026
MIA @ MIN
9 - 5
May 12, 2026
MIA @ MIN
0 - 3
Jul 3, 2025
MIN @ MIA
1 - 4
Jul 2, 2025
MIN @ MIA
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.727
▲
OPS
.720
168
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+39.0% more
Miami: 1.1
vs
Minnesota: 0.6
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.9%
Miami: 32.6%
vs
Minnesota: 31.7%
OPS (Season)
+0.7%
Miami: 72.7%
vs
Minnesota: 72.0%
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.4%
Miami: 24.9%
vs
Minnesota: 24.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
6.0
0
MIN Score
3.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.2 / 7.5
4.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 6.8
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 12.4
7.0 / 2.0
Walks
5.6 / 3.5
0.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
MIA
MIN
MIA
ML
52%
84-78
48%
78-84
50%
80-81
55%
88-72
ATS
59%
95-67
56%
91-71
59%
95-66
54%
86-74
TTL
51%
78-75-9
56%
88-69-5
53%
80-72-9
53%
82-73-5
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