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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

19-22  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, May 12 • 7:40 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

19-21  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Strahm

#25 | Relief Pitcher
@
Bryan Hudson
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Hudson

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matt Strahm None-None 4.02 -- 1.0 1
Bryan Hudson None-None 0.90 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
4.02 ERA Ldr 0.90
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
100%
📊
WHITE SOX
0%
ROYALS --
WHITE SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Chicago)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

22.7%

White Sox Cover

77.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

KC By 1-2 runs

10.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

5.4%

CHW By 1-2 runs

18.4%

CHW By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
KANSAS CITY
6
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI White Sox Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim White Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI White Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim White Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 CHW @ KC 9 - 1
Sep 23, 2026 CHW @ KC 4 - 5
Sep 22, 2026 CHW @ KC 14 - 11
Jun 28, 2026 KC @ CHW 5 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 KC @ CHW 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.718
OPS
▲ .826
170 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +74.0% more
Chicago: 1.6 vs Kansas City: 0.8
Runs per Game (Season) +40.8% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Kansas City: 4.3
Errors (L5) +28.0% more
Chicago: 0.9 vs Kansas City: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +12.3% more
Chicago: 14.0 vs Kansas City: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.0 5
CHW Score 6.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.4 / 7.7 7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.8 3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 8.4 5.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 14.0 / 12.4 17.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.3 / 5.0 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
KC
CHW
KC
ML
49% 81-86
55% 89-72
56% 94-73
56% 90-70
ATS
59% 99-68
57% 91-70
56% 93-74
58% 93-67
TTL
58% 96-69-2
58% 90-64-7
51% 84-81-2
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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