Home / NBA Projections NBA / Timberwolves @ Spurs MIN @ SA

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

49-33  |  Road

97
FINAL
Tue, May 12 • 8:00 PM ET
Frost Bank Center
View Odds Details →

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

62-20  |  Home

126
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
📊
SPURS
0%
TIMBERWOLVES --
SPURS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Antonio)
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 SpursSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

42.1%

Spurs Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)

MIN By 1-7 points

23.0%

MIN By 8-14 points

12.2%

SA By 1-7 points

26.8%

SA By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
107
MINNESOTA
109
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
105
MINNESOTA
118
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spurs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spurs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spurs (+10) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Spurs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u218.5 Loss
Proj Total: 216.0
D
Sim u218.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 15, 2026 SA @ MIN 139 - 109
May 12, 2026 MIN @ SA 97 - 126
May 10, 2026 SA @ MIN 109 - 114
May 8, 2026 SA @ MIN 115 - 108
May 6, 2026 MIN @ SA 95 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +98.5% more
San Antonio: 6.8 vs Minnesota: 3.4
Steals (L5) +88.0% more
San Antonio: 10.2 vs Minnesota: 5.4
Assists (L5) +8.2% more
San Antonio: 23.3 vs Minnesota: 21.5
Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
San Antonio: 48.0% vs Minnesota: 43.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 107.0 97
SA Score 109.0 126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.5 / 34.8 34.0 / 27.0
Assists 23.3 / 21.5 25.0 / 17.0
Blocks 6.8 / 3.4 8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 43.3 53.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 77.8 / 78.2 78.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 45.8 / 48.4 50.0 / 42.0
Steals 10.2 / 5.4 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 15.6 15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
SA Advantage
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
MIN
SA
MIN
ML
60% 111-73
54% 63-53
58% 61-44
54% 50-43
ATS
58% 107-76-1
58% 67-49
58% 61-44
54% 50-43
TTL
74% 134-47-3
63% 72-43-1
100% 105-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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