Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Dodgers SF @ LAD

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

16-24  |  Road

9
FINAL
Mon, May 11 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

24-16  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
JT Brubaker
STARTING PITCHER

JT Brubaker

#34 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jack Dreyer
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Dreyer

#86 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
JT Brubaker None-None 3.86 -- 1.0 1
Jack Dreyer None-None 2.29 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.86 ERA Ldr 2.29
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
100%
📊
DODGERS
0%
GIANTS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
14.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Los Angeles)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

2.3%

Dodgers Cover

97.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

SF By 1-2 runs

1.2%

SF By 3-4 runs

0.3%

LAD By 1-2 runs

5.4%

LAD By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
11
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -8.0
D
Sim Dodgers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 14.0
D
Sim u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 LAD @ SF 5 - 1
Sep 26, 2026 LAD @ SF 4 - 3
Sep 25, 2026 LAD @ SF 2 - 0
Sep 20, 2026 SF @ LAD 1 - 3
Sep 19, 2026 SF @ LAD 4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.706
OPS
▲ .762
178
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +19.6% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Home Runs (Season) +14.6% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs San Francisco: 178.0
Home Runs (L5) +10.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.1 vs San Francisco: 1.0
OPS (Season) +5.6%
Los Angeles: 76.2% vs San Francisco: 70.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 3.0 9
LAD Score 11.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.8 / 9.3 10.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 8.4 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.4 / 15.2 15.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.0 / 6.0 6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
SF
LAD
SF
ML
56% 92-73
49% 79-81
48% 79-87
53% 85-75
ATS
59% 98-67
62% 100-60
43% 72-94
52% 83-77
TTL
48% 77-82-6
55% 82-68-10
44% 70-90-6
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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