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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

18-22  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, May 10 • 7:20 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

19-21  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Kenley Jansen
STARTING PITCHER

Kenley Jansen

#74 | Relief Pitcher
@
Steven Cruz
STARTING PITCHER

Steven Cruz

#64 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kenley Jansen None-None 4.82 -- 1.0 2
Steven Cruz None-None 10.29 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.82 Ldr ERA 10.29
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
ROYALS
0%
TIGERS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Kansas City)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

15.9%

Royals Cover

84.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

DET By 1-2 runs

7.8%

DET By 3-4 runs

3.5%

KC By 1-2 runs

16.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
DETROIT
7
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim Royals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 DET @ KC 7 - 11
Aug 22, 2026 DET @ KC 1 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 DET @ KC 2 - 5
Jul 26, 2026 KC @ DET 5 - 4
Jul 25, 2026 KC @ DET 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.720 ▲
OPS
.718
181 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +103.0% more
Kansas City: 1.3 vs Detroit: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +56.3% more
Kansas City: 13.6 vs Detroit: 8.7
Hits (L5) +30.9% more
Kansas City: 7.5 vs Detroit: 5.8
Walks (L5) +30.4% more
Kansas City: 4.0 vs Detroit: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 3.0 6
KC Score 7.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.5 / 5.8 8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 8.1 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 13.6 / 8.7 10.0 / 18.0
Walks 4.0 / 3.1 7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
DET
KC
DET
ML
55% 89-72
54% 86-73
56% 90-70
54% 87-73
ATS
57% 91-70
64% 101-58
58% 93-67
57% 91-69
TTL
58% 90-64-7
46% 69-81-9
54% 83-70-7
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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