NEW YORK
METSNYM
15-24 | Road
1
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
18-20 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Manaea
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Morillo
#62 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea | None-None | 6.56 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Juan Morillo | None-None | 1.93 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.56
ERA
Ldr 1.93
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
METS
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
METS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
NYM By 1-2 runs
13.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
7.8%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 10, 2026
NYM @ ARI
1 - 5
May 9, 2026
NYM @ ARI
1 - 2
May 8, 2026
NYM @ ARI
3 - 1
Apr 9, 2026
ARI @ NYM
7 - 1
Apr 8, 2026
ARI @ NYM
7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.705
OPS
▲
.720
204
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+11.0% more
Arizona: 0.2
vs
New York: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+5.8% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
New York: 4.3
OPS (Season)
+1.5%
Arizona: 72.0%
vs
New York: 70.5%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.8%
Arizona: 31.8%
vs
New York: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
3.0
1
ARI Score
5.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.1
0.0 / 3.0
Hits
5.6 / 5.8
5.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 9.3
4.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
8.7 / 9.9
8.0 / 5.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.7
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
NYM
ARI
NYM
ML
54%
87-74
50%
79-80
54%
86-74
48%
76-83
ATS
57%
91-70
58%
93-66
56%
89-71
49%
78-81
TTL
52%
80-73-8
55%
80-66-13
49%
73-77-9
51%
74-72-13
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