Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Lakers OKC @ LAL

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

64-18  |  Road

115
FINAL
Mon, May 11 • 10:30 PM ET
crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

53-29  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
THUNDER --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

99.7%

Lakers Cover

0.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

2.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

8.0%

LAL By 1-7 points

0.3%

LAL By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
123
OKLAHOMA CITY
96
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
113
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o214.0 Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Sim u214.0 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 11, 2026 OKC @ LAL 115 - 110
May 9, 2026 OKC @ LAL 131 - 108
May 7, 2026 LAL @ OKC 107 - 125
May 5, 2026 LAL @ OKC 90 - 108
Apr 7, 2026 OKC @ LAL 123 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +37.2% more
Oklahoma City: 4.7 vs Los Angeles: 2.9
Steals (L5) +35.1% more
Oklahoma City: 10.3 vs Los Angeles: 6.7
Free Throw % (L5) +7.1%
Oklahoma City: 82.8% vs Los Angeles: 75.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.7%
Oklahoma City: 53.1% vs Los Angeles: 46.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 123.0 115
LAL Score 96.0 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.8 / 41.8 36.0 / 35.0
Assists 26.1 / 28.0 18.0 / 19.0
Blocks 2.9 / 4.7 5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 53.1 51.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 75.6 / 82.8 89.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 38.2 / 40.5 37.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.7 / 10.3 3.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 17.7 / 12.4 19.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
LAL
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
OKC
LAL
OKC
ML
61% 68-43
70% 80-34
54% 49-42
48% 46-49
ATS
61% 67-43-1
73% 83-30-1
54% 49-42
48% 46-49
TTL
61% 66-43-2
67% 76-38
100% 91-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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