Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pistons @ Cavaliers DET @ CLE

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

60-22  |  Road

103
FINAL
Mon, May 11 • 8:00 PM ET
Rocket Arena
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

52-30  |  Home

112
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
0%
📊
CAVALIERS
100%
PISTONS --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
205.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Detroit)
PistonsDET (-3.5) 0 CavaliersCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pistons Cover

81.6%

Cavaliers Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DET -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-7 points

24.3%

DET By 8-14 points

26.8%

CLE By 1-7 points

12.2%

CLE By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
107
DETROIT
98
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
105
DETROIT
118
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pistons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pistons (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u213.0 Loss
Proj Total: 205.0
D
Sim u213.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 17, 2026 CLE @ DET 125 - 94
May 15, 2026 DET @ CLE 115 - 94
May 13, 2026 CLE @ DET 117 - 113
May 11, 2026 DET @ CLE 103 - 112
May 9, 2026 DET @ CLE 109 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +41.2% more
Detroit: 10.1 vs Cleveland: 5.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.2%
Detroit: 39.8% vs Cleveland: 32.6%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.9%
Detroit: 78.6% vs Cleveland: 74.7%
Blocks (L5) +11.7% more
Cleveland: 5.9 vs Detroit: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 107.0 103
CLE Score 98.0 112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.6 / 39.8 34.0 / 43.0
Assists 21.7 / 22.7 23.0 / 23.0
Blocks 5.9 / 5.3 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.9 / 46.1 44.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 74.7 / 78.6 88.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 40.0 / 43.1 33.0 / 35.0
Steals 5.9 / 10.1 11.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 15.5 / 14.5 15.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
CLE
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
DET
CLE
DET
ML
60% 69-46
55% 64-53
56% 55-44
49% 47-49
ATS
67% 75-37-3
53% 60-54-3
56% 55-44
49% 47-49
TTL
59% 68-47
60% 70-46-1
100% 99-0
100% 96-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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