Home / MLB Projections MLB / Athletics @ Orioles ATH @ BAL

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

21-18  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, May 10 • 1:35 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

17-23  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Luis Medina
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Medina

#46 | Relief Pitcher
@
Rico Garcia
STARTING PITCHER

Rico Garcia

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Luis Medina None-None 1.84 -- 2.0 4
Rico Garcia None-None 0.50 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.84 ERA Ldr 0.50
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
100%
📊
ORIOLES
0%
ATHLETICS --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Baltimore)
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

22.7%

Orioles Cover

77.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

ATH By 1-2 runs

10.6%

ATH By 3-4 runs

5.4%

BAL By 1-2 runs

18.4%

BAL By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ATHLETICS
5
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
6
ATHLETICS
3
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Orioles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Athletics (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u10.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u10.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2026 BAL @ ATH 8 - 5
Aug 29, 2026 BAL @ ATH 5 - 3
Aug 28, 2026 BAL @ ATH 4 - 3
May 10, 2026 ATH @ BAL 1 - 2
May 9, 2026 ATH @ BAL 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Baltimore BAL
162 ▲
Games Played
161
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.719 ▲
OPS
.711
194
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +21.0% more
Baltimore: 0.3 vs Athletics: 0.1
Walks (L5) +12.2% more
Baltimore: 3.7 vs Athletics: 3.3
Runs per Game (Season) +3.5% more
Baltimore: 4.5 vs Athletics: 4.3
Home Runs (Season) +2.6% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Athletics: 194.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 2.0 1
BAL Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 9.8 6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 8.9 10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 11.8 / 15.9 8.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.3 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
ATH
BAL
ATH
ML
53% 83-73
59% 95-67
57% 90-69
54% 87-74
ATS
61% 95-60-1
52% 84-78
57% 90-68-1
50% 81-80
TTL
54% 81-70-5
54% 84-73-5
51% 78-75-6
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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