WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
19-21 | Road
2
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
18-22 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Orlando Ribalta
#64 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Ribalta | None-None | 3.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 3.38 | -- | 2.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.00 Ldr
ERA
3.38
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
0%
MARLINS
100%
NATIONALS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
16.3%
MIA By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Miami
4
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nationals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 31, 2026
MIA @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
MIA @ WSH
6 - 2
Aug 29, 2026
MIA @ WSH
4 - 5
Aug 28, 2026
MIA @ WSH
2 - 9
Aug 23, 2026
WSH @ MIA
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.744
▲
OPS
.727
210
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+85.6% more
Washington: 1.4
vs
Miami: 0.2
Home Runs (Season)
+20.0% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+13.0% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Miami: 4.4
Slugging Pct (Season)
+2.3%
Washington: 42.3%
vs
Miami: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
5.0
2
MIA Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 1.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.2 / 8.9
6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 6.9
5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.7 / 16.2
6.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.7 / 2.9
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
WSH
MIA
WSH
ML
48%
78-84
57%
92-69
55%
88-72
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
91-71
58%
93-68
54%
86-74
57%
91-70
TTL
56%
88-69-5
50%
77-78-6
53%
82-73-5
42%
65-90-6
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