SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
62-20 | Road
109
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
49-33 | Home
114
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
SPURS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
SA By 1-7 points
27.4%
SA By 8-14 points
21.6%
MIN By 1-7 points
20.1%
MIN By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
117
SAN ANTONIO
Minnesota
113
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
San Antonio
118
SAN ANTONIO
Minnesota
110
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Spurs (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o218.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim
u218.0
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 15, 2026
SA @ MIN
139 - 109
May 12, 2026
MIN @ SA
97 - 126
May 10, 2026
SA @ MIN
109 - 114
May 8, 2026
SA @ MIN
115 - 108
May 6, 2026
MIN @ SA
95 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+46.8% more
San Antonio: 8.7
vs
Minnesota: 4.6
Steals (L5)
+35.9% more
San Antonio: 8.8
vs
Minnesota: 5.6
Assists (L5)
+15.7% more
San Antonio: 26.4
vs
Minnesota: 22.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.9%
San Antonio: 77.7%
vs
Minnesota: 71.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
117.0
109
MIN Score
113.0
114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.7 / 37.2
37.0 / 23.0
Assists
22.2 / 26.4
20.0 / 17.0
Blocks
4.6 / 8.7
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
42.5 / 48.0
45.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
71.8 / 77.7
91.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
48.1 / 48.2
49.0 / 41.0
Steals
5.6 / 8.8
5.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 13.4
17.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
SA
MIN
SA
ML
54%
63-53
60%
111-73
54%
50-43
58%
61-44
ATS
58%
67-49
58%
107-76-1
54%
50-43
58%
61-44
TTL
63%
72-43-1
74%
134-47-3
100%
93-0
100%
105-0
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