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VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

39-26-17  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, May 10 • 9:30 PM ET
Honda Center
View Odds Details →

ANAHEIM

DUCKSANA

43-33-6  |  Home

4
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
100%
📊
DUCKS
0%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS --
DUCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ANAHEIM
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Anaheim)
Golden KnightsVGK (-3.5) 0 DucksANA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Knights Cover

15.9%

Ducks Cover

84.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around ANA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ANA)

VGK By 1 goal

6.6%

VGK By 2-3 goals

3.7%

ANA By 1 goal

17.5%

ANA By 2-3 goals

37.2%

AI Model Projected Score
1
VEGAS
3
ANAHEIM
Simulated Score
4
VEGAS
2
ANAHEIM
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ducks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Knights Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ducks (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Golden Knights (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 2, 2026 ANA @ VGK 4 - 3
May 14, 2026 VGK @ ANA 5 - 1
May 10, 2026 VGK @ ANA 3 - 4
May 8, 2026 VGK @ ANA 6 - 2
May 6, 2026 ANA @ VGK 3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +32.6% more
Anaheim: 40.4 vs Vegas: 30.5
Takeaways (L5) +25.5% more
Vegas: 5.3 vs Anaheim: 4.0
Power Play % (L5) +21.9%
Vegas: 22.6% vs Anaheim: 0.7%
Faceoff % (L5) +5.9%
Vegas: 53.3% vs Anaheim: 47.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VGK Score 1.0 3
ANA Score 3.0 4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
43%MONEY57%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ANA
VGK
ANA
VGK
ML
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
TTL
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
0% 0-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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