PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
21-18 | Road
13
SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
15-23 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
JT Brubaker
#34 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Ashcraft | None-None | 2.77 | -- | 7.0 | 6 |
| JT Brubaker | None-None | 4.08 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.77 Ldr
ERA
4.08
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
GIANTS
0%
PIRATES
--
GIANTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
PIT By 1-2 runs
10.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
5.4%
SF By 1-2 runs
18.4%
SF By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
San Francisco
6
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
San Francisco
2
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Giants
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Giants (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Pirates (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 3, 2026
SF @ PIT
2 - 5
Sep 2, 2026
SF @ PIT
5 - 4
Sep 1, 2026
SF @ PIT
12 - 13
May 10, 2026
PIT @ SF
6 - 7
May 9, 2026
PIT @ SF
13 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
San Francisco
SF
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.734
▲
OPS
.706
186
▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+90.9% more
San Francisco: 4.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 2.2
Errors (L5)
+57.0% more
San Francisco: 0.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.1
Hits (L5)
+19.7% more
San Francisco: 7.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.5
Total Bases (L5)
+9.7% more
San Francisco: 11.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 10.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.0
13
SF Score
6.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.7 / 6.5
7.0 / 20.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.6 / 6.5
11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 10.9
10.0 / 26.0
Walks
4.2 / 2.2
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
SF
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
PIT
SF
PIT
ML
49%
79-81
52%
82-77
53%
85-75
52%
85-78
ATS
62%
100-60
54%
86-73
52%
83-77
50%
81-82
TTL
55%
82-68-10
47%
72-81-6
46%
68-81-11
50%
79-78-6
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …