ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
20-18 | Road
6
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
17-22 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hogan Harris
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Kittredge
#39 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hogan Harris | None-None | 2.61 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Andrew Kittredge | None-None | 12.71 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.61 Ldr
ERA
12.71
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
100%
ORIOLES
0%
ATHLETICS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
ATH By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
10.6%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
6
ATHLETICS
Baltimore
7
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
BAL @ ATH
8 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
BAL @ ATH
5 - 3
Aug 28, 2026
BAL @ ATH
4 - 3
May 10, 2026
ATH @ BAL
1 - 2
May 9, 2026
ATH @ BAL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.719
▲
OPS
.711
194
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+31.0% more
Baltimore: 0.5
vs
Athletics: 0.2
Walks (L5)
+20.7% more
Baltimore: 3.5
vs
Athletics: 2.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.5% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Athletics: 4.3
Home Runs (Season)
+2.6% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Athletics: 194.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
6.0
6
BAL Score
7.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 9.2
9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.4
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 7.9
10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 15.3
12.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.5 / 2.9
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
ATH
BAL
ATH
ML
53%
83-73
59%
95-67
57%
90-69
54%
87-74
ATS
61%
95-60-1
52%
84-78
57%
90-68-1
50%
81-80
TTL
54%
81-70-5
54%
84-73-5
51%
78-75-6
42%
66-90-5
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