Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Blue Jays LAA @ TOR

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

15-24  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, May 9 • 3:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

17-21  |  Home

14
Probable Pitchers
Mitch Farris
STARTING PITCHER

Mitch Farris

#70 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tyler Rogers
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Rogers

#71 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mitch Farris None-None 3.60 -- 3.0 2
Tyler Rogers None-None 2.04 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.60 ERA Ldr 2.04
-- WHIP --
3.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
0%
📊
BLUE JAYS
100%
ANGELS --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Los Angeles)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

69.1%

Blue Jays Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAA By 3-4 runs

18.4%

TOR By 1-2 runs

13.6%

TOR By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5
LOS ANGELES
3
TORONTO
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Angels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Jays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Angels (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Blue Jays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 10, 2026 LAA @ TOR 6 - 1
May 9, 2026 LAA @ TOR 1 - 14
May 8, 2026 LAA @ TOR 0 - 2
Apr 22, 2026 TOR @ LAA 3 - 7
Apr 21, 2026 TOR @ LAA 4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Toronto TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.04 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.310
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .381
.679
OPS
▲ .692
154 ▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +59.7% more
Los Angeles: 4.7 vs Toronto: 1.9
Home Runs (L5) +27.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.8 vs Toronto: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +25.8% more
Los Angeles: 11.1 vs Toronto: 8.2
Strikeouts (L5) +22.1% more
Los Angeles: 9.2 vs Toronto: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 5.0 1
TOR Score 3.0 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 5.9 / 6.9 20.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.8 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 9.2 9.0 / 2.0
Total Bases 8.2 / 11.1 31.0 / 12.0
Walks 1.9 / 4.7 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
LAA
TOR
LAA
ML
46% 74-87
59% 96-66
50% 80-80
55% 89-73
ATS
56% 90-71
60% 97-65
49% 79-81
51% 82-80
TTL
51% 80-76-5
53% 83-74-5
45% 70-85-5
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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