Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Padres STL @ SD

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

23-15  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, May 9 • 7:15 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

22-16  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Mason Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Miller

#22 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matt Svanson None-None 9.61 -- 1.0 1
Mason Miller None-None 0.96 -- 1.1 4
None-None W-L None-None
9.61 ERA Ldr 0.96
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.1
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
PADRES
0%
CARDINALS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

40.1%

Padres Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

STL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
ST. LOUIS
4
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 SD @ STL 6 - 1
Jun 16, 2026 SD @ STL 2 - 3
Jun 15, 2026 SD @ STL 0 - 3
May 10, 2026 STL @ SD 2 - 3
May 9, 2026 STL @ SD 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.691
OPS
▲ .925
167 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +57.0% more
San Diego: 0.7 vs St. Louis: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season) +35.1% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs St. Louis: 4.4
Home Runs (L5) +25.0% more
San Diego: 0.7 vs St. Louis: 0.4
OPS (Season) +23.4%
San Diego: 92.5% vs St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.0 2
SD Score 4.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 4.7 / 8.1 5.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.4 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 8.3 12.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 7.9 / 11.7 11.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.8 / 3.0 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
STL
SD
STL
ML
51% 85-83
53% 85-74
51% 85-82
52% 84-77
ATS
54% 91-77
56% 89-70
55% 92-75
53% 85-76
TTL
51% 82-80-6
46% 68-81-10
54% 86-74-6
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
si 0 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 1 minute ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 4 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 12 hours, 7 minutes ago