Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Lakers OKC @ LAL

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

64-18  |  Road

131
FINAL
Sat, May 9 • 8:30 PM ET
crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

53-29  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
THUNDER --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

99.5%

Lakers Cover

0.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

2.7%

OKC By 8-14 points

9.3%

LAL By 1-7 points

0.4%

LAL By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
124
OKLAHOMA CITY
98
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o211.0 Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Sim u211.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 11, 2026 OKC @ LAL 115 - 110
May 9, 2026 OKC @ LAL 131 - 108
May 7, 2026 LAL @ OKC 107 - 125
May 5, 2026 LAL @ OKC 90 - 108
Apr 7, 2026 OKC @ LAL 123 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +29.3% more
Oklahoma City: 5.5 vs Los Angeles: 3.9
Steals (L5) +25.7% more
Oklahoma City: 9.5 vs Los Angeles: 7.1
Assists (L5) +12.2% more
Oklahoma City: 26.9 vs Los Angeles: 23.6
Free Throw % (L5) +6.7%
Oklahoma City: 84.1% vs Los Angeles: 77.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 124.0 131
LAL Score 98.0 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 40.2 47.0 / 45.0
Assists 23.6 / 26.9 31.0 / 30.0
Blocks 3.9 / 5.5 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 51.7 47.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 77.5 / 84.1 72.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 38.7 / 39.2 37.0 / 43.0
Steals 7.1 / 9.5 6.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 18.0 / 13.6 17.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
LAL
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
OKC
LAL
OKC
ML
61% 68-43
70% 80-34
54% 49-42
48% 46-49
ATS
61% 67-43-1
73% 83-30-1
54% 49-42
48% 46-49
TTL
61% 66-43-2
67% 76-38
100% 91-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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