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DETROIT

PISTONSDET

60-22  |  Road

109
FINAL
Sat, May 9 • 3:00 PM ET
Rocket Arena
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

52-30  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
0%
📊
CAVALIERS
100%
PISTONS --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
210.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Detroit)
PistonsDET (-3.5) 0 CavaliersCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pistons Cover

97.7%

Cavaliers Cover

2.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DET -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-7 points

8.0%

DET By 8-14 points

18.6%

CLE By 1-7 points

1.7%

CLE By 8-14 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
115
DETROIT
95
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
101
DETROIT
114
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pistons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pistons (-5) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u213.0 Loss
Proj Total: 210.0
D
Sim u213.0 Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 17, 2026 CLE @ DET 125 - 94
May 15, 2026 DET @ CLE 115 - 94
May 13, 2026 CLE @ DET 117 - 113
May 11, 2026 DET @ CLE 103 - 112
May 9, 2026 DET @ CLE 109 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +19.1% more
Detroit: 9.1 vs Cleveland: 7.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.8%
Detroit: 41.6% vs Cleveland: 29.9%
Blocks (L5) +9.6% more
Detroit: 6.0 vs Cleveland: 5.4
Field Goal % (L5) +2.2%
Detroit: 46.6% vs Cleveland: 44.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 115.0 109
CLE Score 95.0 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.9 / 41.6 38.0 / 36.0
Assists 21.6 / 22.5 22.0 / 23.0
Blocks 5.4 / 6.0 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 46.6 58.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 80.1 / 76.8 64.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 43.5 / 44.6 33.0 / 40.0
Steals 7.4 / 9.1 3.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 15.7 / 13.7 15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +5.3
CLE
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +5.3
CLE
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -10.3
CLE
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
DET
CLE
DET
ML
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
100% 4-0
100% 5-0
ATS
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
TTL
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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