ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
19-18 | Road
4
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
17-21 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hogan Harris
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trey Gibson
#43 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hogan Harris | None-None | 2.75 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Trey Gibson | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.75 Ldr
ERA
5.40
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
100%
ORIOLES
0%
ATHLETICS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
ATH By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
10.6%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
BAL @ ATH
8 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
BAL @ ATH
5 - 3
Aug 28, 2026
BAL @ ATH
4 - 3
May 10, 2026
ATH @ BAL
1 - 2
May 9, 2026
ATH @ BAL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.719
▲
OPS
.711
194
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+80.1% more
Baltimore: 4.3
vs
Athletics: 2.4
Errors (L5)
+46.0% more
Baltimore: 0.7
vs
Athletics: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.5% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Athletics: 4.3
Home Runs (Season)
+2.6% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Athletics: 194.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
4.0
4
BAL Score
5.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 9.7
4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 2.1
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.0 / 7.3
12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 17.9
10.0 / 10.0
Walks
4.3 / 2.4
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
ATH
BAL
ATH
ML
53%
83-73
59%
95-67
57%
90-69
54%
87-74
ATS
61%
95-60-1
52%
84-78
57%
90-68-1
50%
81-80
TTL
54%
81-70-5
54%
84-73-5
51%
78-75-6
42%
66-90-5
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