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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

18-20  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, May 8 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

17-21  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Finnegan
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Finnegan

#67 | Relief Pitcher
@
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Finnegan None-None 1.53 -- -- --
Lucas Erceg None-None 3.31 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
1.53 Ldr ERA 3.31
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
ROYALS
100%
TIGERS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

69.1%

Royals Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

19.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

18.4%

KC By 1-2 runs

13.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6
DETROIT
4
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 DET @ KC 7 - 11
Aug 22, 2026 DET @ KC 1 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 DET @ KC 2 - 5
Jul 26, 2026 KC @ DET 5 - 4
Jul 25, 2026 KC @ DET 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.720 ▲
OPS
.718
181 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +52.0% more
Detroit: 0.8 vs Kansas City: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5) +26.7% more
Detroit: 11.4 vs Kansas City: 8.4
Home Runs (Season) +6.1% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Runs per Game (Season) +4.5% more
Detroit: 4.5 vs Kansas City: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 6.0 3
KC Score 4.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.5 / 6.0 8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 11.4 6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 14.2 / 8.6 12.0 / 13.0
Walks 5.1 / 4.0 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
DET
KC
DET
ML
55% 89-72
54% 86-73
56% 90-70
54% 87-73
ATS
57% 91-70
64% 101-58
58% 93-67
57% 91-69
TTL
58% 90-64-7
46% 69-81-9
54% 83-70-7
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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