SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
62-20 | Road
115
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
49-33 | Home
108
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
SPURS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
250.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SA -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
SA By 1-7 points
4.0%
SA By 8-14 points
12.2%
MIN By 1-7 points
0.6%
MIN By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
137
SAN ANTONIO
Minnesota
113
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
San Antonio
104
SAN ANTONIO
Minnesota
116
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Timberwolves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spurs (+6)
Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
Timberwolves (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o217.0
Win
Proj Total: 250.0
D
Sim
u217.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 15, 2026
SA @ MIN
139 - 109
May 12, 2026
MIN @ SA
97 - 126
May 10, 2026
SA @ MIN
109 - 114
May 8, 2026
SA @ MIN
115 - 108
May 6, 2026
MIN @ SA
95 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+64.1% more
San Antonio: 9.5
vs
Minnesota: 3.4
Steals (L5)
+19.9% more
San Antonio: 8.7
vs
Minnesota: 7.0
Assists (L5)
+15.9% more
San Antonio: 26.6
vs
Minnesota: 22.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.8%
San Antonio: 78.5%
vs
Minnesota: 64.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
137.0
115
MIN Score
113.0
108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 37.8
35.0 / 36.0
Assists
22.4 / 26.6
22.0 / 26.0
Blocks
3.4 / 9.5
7.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
44.7 / 49.0
38.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
64.7 / 78.5
86.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
45.1 / 48.3
54.0 / 48.0
Steals
7.0 / 8.7
3.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
16.3 / 15.1
12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
SA
MIN
SA
ML
54%
63-53
60%
111-73
54%
50-43
58%
61-44
ATS
58%
67-49
58%
107-76-1
54%
50-43
58%
61-44
TTL
63%
72-43-1
74%
134-47-3
100%
93-0
100%
105-0
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