Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Padres STL @ SD

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

21-15  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, May 7 • 10:00 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

22-14  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
@
Wandy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Wandy Peralta

#58 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Riley O'Brien None-None 2.00 -- 1.0 1
Wandy Peralta None-None 3.18 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.00 Ldr ERA 3.18
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
PADRES
0%
CARDINALS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

40.1%

Padres Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

STL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
ST. LOUIS
4
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
7
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 SD @ STL 6 - 1
Jun 16, 2026 SD @ STL 2 - 3
Jun 15, 2026 SD @ STL 0 - 3
May 10, 2026 STL @ SD 2 - 3
May 9, 2026 STL @ SD 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.691
OPS
▲ .925
167 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +105.0% more
San Diego: 1.5 vs St. Louis: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5) +43.3% more
San Diego: 9.5 vs St. Louis: 6.6
Runs per Game (Season) +35.1% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs St. Louis: 4.4
Total Bases (L5) +32.2% more
San Diego: 15.0 vs St. Louis: 11.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.0 2
SD Score 4.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.7 / 7.5 4.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 6.6 8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 15.0 / 11.3 4.0 / 12.0
Walks 1.6 / 3.6 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
STL
SD
STL
ML
51% 85-83
53% 85-74
51% 85-82
52% 84-77
ATS
54% 91-77
56% 89-70
55% 92-75
53% 85-76
TTL
51% 82-80-6
46% 68-81-10
54% 86-74-6
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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