CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
19-19 | Road
8
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
17-20 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Alex Lange
#56 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Smith | None-None | 3.12 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Alex Lange | None-None | 6.35 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.12 Ldr
ERA
6.35
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
0%
ROYALS
100%
GUARDIANS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
18.4%
KC By 1-2 runs
13.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
6
CLEVELAND
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Kansas City
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
CLE @ KC
2 - 3
Sep 26, 2026
CLE @ KC
11 - 5
Sep 25, 2026
CLE @ KC
12 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
KC @ CLE
1 - 11
Aug 29, 2026
KC @ CLE
8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.26
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.316
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.696
OPS
▲
.718
162
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+14.4% more
Cleveland: 8.2
vs
Kansas City: 7.1
Home Runs (L5)
+22.0% more
Kansas City: 1.0
vs
Cleveland: 0.8
Errors (L5)
+18.0% more
Kansas City: 0.5
vs
Cleveland: 0.3
Home Runs (Season)
+4.9% more
Kansas City: 170.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
6.0
8
KC Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.7 / 6.4
12.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.8
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.1 / 8.2
11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 10.0
21.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.6
8.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CLE
KC
CLE
ML
55%
89-72
54%
87-74
56%
90-70
49%
80-82
ATS
57%
91-70
58%
93-68
58%
93-67
59%
95-67
TTL
58%
90-64-7
55%
88-71-2
54%
83-70-7
43%
69-90-2
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