MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
16-21 | Road
5
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
17-20 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Taylor Rogers
#55 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orlando Ribalta
#64 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Rogers | None-None | 4.70 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
| Orlando Ribalta | None-None | 3.60 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.70
ERA
Ldr 3.60
--
WHIP
--
1.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
0%
NATIONALS
100%
TWINS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIN By 3-4 runs
18.4%
WSH By 1-2 runs
13.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Twins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Nationals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 7, 2026
MIN @ WSH
5 - 7
May 6, 2026
MIN @ WSH
2 - 15
May 5, 2026
MIN @ WSH
11 - 3
Jul 27, 2025
WSH @ MIN
7 - 2
Jul 26, 2025
WSH @ MIN
9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.720
OPS
▲
.744
187
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+25.3% more
Minnesota: 7.4
vs
Washington: 5.5
Walks (L5)
+24.5% more
Minnesota: 3.9
vs
Washington: 2.9
Errors (L5)
+76.0% more
Washington: 0.9
vs
Minnesota: 0.2
Home Runs (L5)
+60.0% more
Washington: 1.5
vs
Minnesota: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
5.0
5
WSH Score
3.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 7.0
8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.9
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.5 / 7.4
8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
17.7 / 11.8
14.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.9 / 3.9
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIN
WSH
MIN
ML
57%
92-69
52%
84-78
54%
87-74
50%
80-81
ATS
58%
93-68
59%
95-67
57%
91-70
59%
95-66
TTL
50%
77-78-6
51%
78-75-9
42%
65-90-6
53%
80-72-9
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