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LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

53-29  |  Road

107
FINAL
Thu, May 7 • 9:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

64-18  |  Home

125
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
LAKERS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
204.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Oklahoma City)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

1.4%

Thunder Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

LAL By 1-7 points

1.1%

LAL By 8-14 points

0.1%

OKC By 1-7 points

5.8%

OKC By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
91
LOS ANGELES
113
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
108
LOS ANGELES
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (-15) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u211.5 Loss
Proj Total: 204.0
D
Sim u211.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 11, 2026 OKC @ LAL 115 - 110
May 9, 2026 OKC @ LAL 131 - 108
May 7, 2026 LAL @ OKC 107 - 125
May 5, 2026 LAL @ OKC 90 - 108
Apr 7, 2026 OKC @ LAL 123 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +16.8% more
Oklahoma City: 27.4 vs Los Angeles: 23.5
Steals (L5) +16.4% more
Oklahoma City: 8.2 vs Los Angeles: 7.1
Free Throw % (L5) +12.5%
Oklahoma City: 85.7% vs Los Angeles: 73.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.4%
Oklahoma City: 40.8% vs Los Angeles: 35.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 91.0 107
OKC Score 113.0 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.8 / 35.4 39.0 / 38.0
Assists 27.4 / 23.5 26.0 / 24.0
Blocks 5.8 / 5.9 5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 44.1 56.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 85.7 / 73.2 81.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 42.8 / 43.1 32.0 / 30.0
Steals 8.2 / 7.1 12.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 16.6 14.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
LAL
OKC
LAL
ML
70% 80-34
61% 68-43
48% 46-49
54% 49-42
ATS
73% 83-30-1
61% 67-43-1
48% 46-49
54% 49-42
TTL
67% 76-38
61% 66-43-2
100% 95-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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