BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
15-21 | Road
4
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
18-19 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Greg Weissert
#57 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Finnegan
#67 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Weissert | None-None | 4.91 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Kyle Finnegan | None-None | 0.51 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.91
ERA
Ldr 0.51
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
0%
TIGERS
100%
RED SOX
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.4%
BOS By 3-4 runs
19.6%
DET By 1-2 runs
10.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
5.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
7
BOSTON
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Tigers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 6, 2026
BOS @ DET
4 - 0
May 5, 2026
BOS @ DET
10 - 3
May 4, 2026
BOS @ DET
5 - 4
Apr 20, 2026
DET @ BOS
6 - 8
Apr 19, 2026
DET @ BOS
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Detroit
DET
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.241
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.409
OPS
▲
.720
2
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+52.9% more
Boston: 1.6
vs
Detroit: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+35.2% more
Boston: 16.1
vs
Detroit: 10.4
Hits (L5)
+34.0% more
Boston: 10.5
vs
Detroit: 6.9
Walks (L5)
+21.4% more
Boston: 3.1
vs
Detroit: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
7.0
4
DET Score
4.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 10.5
4.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.6
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 9.7
15.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
10.4 / 16.1
5.0 / 5.0
Walks
2.4 / 3.1
7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
BOS
DET
BOS
ML
54%
86-73
50%
80-80
54%
87-73
47%
76-87
ATS
64%
101-58
58%
93-67
57%
91-69
48%
79-84
TTL
46%
69-81-9
46%
72-83-5
46%
69-81-10
47%
74-83-6
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