Home / MLB Projections MLB / Brewers @ Cardinals MIL @ STL

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

18-16  |  Road

6
FINAL
Wed, May 6 • 1:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

21-14  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Abner Uribe
STARTING PITCHER

Abner Uribe

#45 | Relief Pitcher
@
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Abner Uribe None-None 4.05 -- 1.0 --
Matt Svanson None-None 9.64 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.05 Ldr ERA 9.64
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
0%
📊
CARDINALS
100%
BREWERS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BrewersMIL (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

40.1%

Cardinals Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

STL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4
MILWAUKEE
3
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
3
MILWAUKEE
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Brewers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Push
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u8.0 Push
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 STL @ MIL 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 STL @ MIL 2 - 3
Sep 25, 2026 STL @ MIL 4 - 8
Jul 9, 2026 MIL @ STL 8 - 4
Jul 8, 2026 MIL @ STL 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.743 ▲
OPS
.691
154
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +26.4% more
Milwaukee: 9.4 vs St. Louis: 6.9
Errors (L5) +20.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.6 vs St. Louis: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season) +13.6% more
Milwaukee: 5.1 vs St. Louis: 4.4
OPS (Season) +5.2%
Milwaukee: 74.3% vs St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 4.0 6
STL Score 3.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.3 / 8.8 4.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 9.4 6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 14.0 / 12.3 6.0 / 15.0
Walks 4.0 / 2.8 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
MIL
STL
MIL
ML
53% 85-74
62% 101-61
52% 84-77
52% 84-78
ATS
56% 89-70
58% 94-68
53% 85-76
48% 78-84
TTL
46% 68-81-10
40% 62-92-8
50% 76-75-10
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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