CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
18-19 | Road
3
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
17-19 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Alex Lange
#56 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Smith | None-None | 3.31 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Alex Lange | None-None | 6.19 | -- | 1.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.31 Ldr
ERA
6.19
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
100%
ROYALS
0%
GUARDIANS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
CLE By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
10.6%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
CLE @ KC
2 - 3
Sep 26, 2026
CLE @ KC
11 - 5
Sep 25, 2026
CLE @ KC
12 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
KC @ CLE
1 - 11
Aug 29, 2026
KC @ CLE
8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.26
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.316
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.696
OPS
▲
.718
162
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+29.5% more
Kansas City: 1.5
vs
Cleveland: 1.1
Total Bases (L5)
+28.7% more
Kansas City: 14.1
vs
Cleveland: 11.0
Hits (L5)
+23.2% more
Kansas City: 8.1
vs
Cleveland: 6.5
Home Runs (Season)
+4.9% more
Kansas City: 170.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
4.0
3
KC Score
5.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 6.5
4.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.6 / 8.4
8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 11.0
4.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.9
6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CLE
KC
CLE
ML
55%
89-72
54%
87-74
56%
90-70
49%
80-82
ATS
57%
91-70
58%
93-68
58%
93-67
59%
95-67
TTL
58%
90-64-7
55%
88-71-2
54%
83-70-7
43%
69-90-2
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