BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
16-20 | Road
7
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
16-20 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Rico Garcia
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dax Fulton
#90 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Garcia | None-None | 0.53 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Dax Fulton | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 4.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.53 Ldr
ERA
4.50
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
0%
MARLINS
100%
ORIOLES
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
MIA By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Miami
5
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Miami
6
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 7, 2026
BAL @ MIA
3 - 4
May 6, 2026
BAL @ MIA
7 - 4
May 5, 2026
BAL @ MIA
9 - 7
Jul 13, 2025
MIA @ BAL
11 - 1
Jul 12, 2025
MIA @ BAL
6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Miami
MIA
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.711
OPS
▲
.727
199
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+44.4% more
Baltimore: 5.3
vs
Miami: 3.0
Home Runs (Season)
+15.6% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Home Runs (L5)
+65.0% more
Miami: 1.1
vs
Baltimore: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+19.7% more
Miami: 8.4
vs
Baltimore: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
6.0
7
MIA Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 8.5
6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 7.0
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.1 / 12.1
8.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.0 / 5.3
7.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
BAL
MIA
BAL
ML
48%
78-84
53%
83-73
55%
88-72
57%
90-69
ATS
56%
91-71
61%
95-60-1
54%
86-74
57%
90-68-1
TTL
56%
88-69-5
54%
81-70-5
53%
82-73-5
51%
78-75-6
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