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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

16-20  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, May 6 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

16-20  |  Home

15
Probable Pitchers
Kody Funderburk
STARTING PITCHER

Kody Funderburk

#57 | Relief Pitcher
@
Miles Mikolas
STARTING PITCHER

Miles Mikolas

#36 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kody Funderburk None-None 2.51 -- 1.0 2
Miles Mikolas None-None 7.44 -- 5.1 3
None-None W-L None-None
2.51 Ldr ERA 7.44
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.1
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
100%
📊
NATIONALS
0%
TWINS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

40.1%

Nationals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

MIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

MIN By 3-4 runs

10.6%

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
MINNESOTA
6
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
MINNESOTA
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nationals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 7, 2026 MIN @ WSH 5 - 7
May 6, 2026 MIN @ WSH 2 - 15
May 5, 2026 MIN @ WSH 11 - 3
Jul 27, 2025 WSH @ MIN 7 - 2
Jul 26, 2025 WSH @ MIN 9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.720
OPS
▲ .744
187
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +64.0% more
Washington: 0.9 vs Minnesota: 0.3
Walks (L5) +32.2% more
Washington: 4.4 vs Minnesota: 3.3
Home Runs (Season) +12.3% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Minnesota: 187.0
Runs per Game (Season) +11.2% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Minnesota: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 5.0 2
WSH Score 6.0 15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.6 / 9.0 14.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 0.2 / 0.8 4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.7 / 7.5 5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 14.2 33.0 / 7.0
Walks 4.4 / 3.3 0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIN
WSH
MIN
ML
57% 92-69
52% 84-78
54% 87-74
50% 80-81
ATS
58% 93-68
59% 95-67
57% 91-70
59% 95-66
TTL
50% 77-78-6
51% 78-75-9
42% 65-90-6
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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