SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
21-14 | Road
5
SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
14-22 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Miller
#22 | Relief Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Keaton Winn
#67 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Miller | None-None | 1.04 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Keaton Winn | None-None | 2.93 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.04 Ldr
ERA
2.93
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
0%
GIANTS
100%
PADRES
--
GIANTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
18.4%
SF By 1-2 runs
13.6%
SF By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
San Francisco
4
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
San Francisco
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Giants
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Giants (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
SD @ SF
6 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
SD @ SF
7 - 6
Sep 11, 2026
SD @ SF
7 - 5
Aug 2, 2026
SF @ SD
4 - 5
Aug 1, 2026
SF @ SD
5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
San Francisco
SF
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.925
▲
OPS
.706
4
Home Runs
▲
178
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+31.2% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
San Francisco: 4.1
Home Runs (L5)
+25.0% more
San Diego: 1.3
vs
San Francisco: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+21.9%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
San Francisco: 70.6%
Total Bases (L5)
+20.9% more
San Diego: 14.9
vs
San Francisco: 11.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
6.0
5
SF Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.0
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 8.6
3.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.3
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 7.8
4.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 14.9
6.0 / 15.0
Walks
2.2 / 2.5
4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
SD
SF
SD
ML
49%
79-81
51%
85-83
53%
85-75
51%
85-82
ATS
62%
100-60
54%
91-77
52%
83-77
55%
92-75
TTL
55%
82-68-10
51%
82-80-6
46%
68-81-11
54%
86-74-6
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