ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
18-17 | Road
3
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
16-20 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hogan Harris
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orion Kerkering
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hogan Harris | None-None | 2.79 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Orion Kerkering | None-None | 2.08 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.79
ERA
Ldr 2.08
--
WHIP
--
0.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
100%
PHILLIES
0%
ATHLETICS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
ATH By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
10.6%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 7, 2026
ATH @ PHI
12 - 1
May 6, 2026
ATH @ PHI
3 - 6
May 5, 2026
ATH @ PHI
1 - 9
May 25, 2025
PHI @ ATH
4 - 5
May 24, 2025
PHI @ ATH
9 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.719
OPS
▲
.724
194
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+50.8% more
Philadelphia: 10.0
vs
Athletics: 6.6
Home Runs (L5)
+30.5% more
Philadelphia: 1.5
vs
Athletics: 1.2
Total Bases (L5)
+27.0% more
Philadelphia: 16.9
vs
Athletics: 13.3
Errors (L5)
+14.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.3
vs
Athletics: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
4.0
3
PHI Score
5.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.7 / 8.7
12.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 6.6
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
16.9 / 13.3
18.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.5 / 4.1
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
ATH
PHI
ATH
ML
59%
97-67
59%
95-67
49%
80-84
54%
87-74
ATS
65%
107-57
52%
84-78
51%
83-81
50%
81-80
TTL
57%
88-67-9
54%
84-73-5
51%
78-76-9
42%
66-90-5
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