BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
15-20 | Road
9
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
16-19 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Rico Garcia
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Petersen
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Garcia | None-None | 0.56 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
| Michael Petersen | None-None | 3.38 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.56 Ldr
ERA
3.38
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
100%
MARLINS
0%
ORIOLES
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
BAL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Miami
5
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Miami
6
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 7, 2026
BAL @ MIA
3 - 4
May 6, 2026
BAL @ MIA
7 - 4
May 5, 2026
BAL @ MIA
9 - 7
Jul 13, 2025
MIA @ BAL
11 - 1
Jul 12, 2025
MIA @ BAL
6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Miami
MIA
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.711
OPS
▲
.727
199
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+37.6% more
Miami: 7.7
vs
Baltimore: 5.6
OPS (Season)
+1.6%
Miami: 72.7%
vs
Baltimore: 71.1%
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.5%
Miami: 24.9%
vs
Baltimore: 23.4%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+1.2%
Miami: 32.6%
vs
Baltimore: 31.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.0
9
MIA Score
5.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.9
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 7.8
9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 5.6
10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
10.7 / 10.6
15.0 / 15.0
Walks
1.9 / 5.5
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
BAL
MIA
BAL
ML
48%
78-84
53%
83-73
55%
88-72
57%
90-69
ATS
56%
91-71
61%
95-60-1
54%
86-74
57%
90-68-1
TTL
56%
88-69-5
54%
81-70-5
53%
82-73-5
51%
78-75-6
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