Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Giants SD @ SF

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

20-14  |  Road

10
FINAL
Tue, May 5 • 9:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

14-21  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Jeremiah Estrada
STARTING PITCHER

Jeremiah Estrada

#56 | Relief Pitcher
@
JT Brubaker
STARTING PITCHER

JT Brubaker

#34 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jeremiah Estrada None-None 4.66 -- 1.2 2
JT Brubaker None-None 2.65 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.66 ERA Ldr 2.65
-- WHIP --
1.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
100%
📊
GIANTS
0%
PADRES --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Francisco)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

40.1%

Giants Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SD By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SD By 3-4 runs

10.6%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
SAN DIEGO
4
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
6
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Giants (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 SD @ SF 6 - 4
Sep 12, 2026 SD @ SF 7 - 6
Sep 11, 2026 SD @ SF 7 - 5
Aug 2, 2026 SF @ SD 4 - 5
Aug 1, 2026 SF @ SD 5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
San Francisco SF
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.925 ▲
OPS
.706
4
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4350.0% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Errors (L5) +34.0% more
San Francisco: 0.4 vs San Diego: 0.1
Home Runs (L5) +68.5% more
San Diego: 1.4 vs San Francisco: 0.5
Walks (L5) +38.0% more
San Diego: 3.7 vs San Francisco: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.0 10
SF Score 4.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.1 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.3 / 5.9 8.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.4 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 7.6 5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 10.7 / 10.9 14.0 / 23.0
Walks 2.3 / 3.7 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
SD
SF
SD
ML
49% 79-81
51% 85-83
53% 85-75
51% 85-82
ATS
62% 100-60
54% 91-77
52% 83-77
55% 92-75
TTL
55% 82-68-10
51% 82-80-6
46% 68-81-11
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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