MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
15-20 | Road
11
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
16-19 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Taj Bradley
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orlando Ribalta
#64 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taj Bradley | None-None | 2.87 | -- | 6.0 | 8 |
| Orlando Ribalta | None-None | 2.25 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.87
ERA
Ldr 2.25
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
8 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
100%
NATIONALS
0%
TWINS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
MIN By 1-2 runs
10.6%
MIN By 3-4 runs
5.4%
WSH By 1-2 runs
18.4%
WSH By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Washington
7
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 7, 2026
MIN @ WSH
5 - 7
May 6, 2026
MIN @ WSH
2 - 15
May 5, 2026
MIN @ WSH
11 - 3
Jul 27, 2025
WSH @ MIN
7 - 2
Jul 26, 2025
WSH @ MIN
9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.720
OPS
▲
.744
187
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+47.0% more
Washington: 0.9
vs
Minnesota: 0.4
Home Runs (Season)
+12.3% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Minnesota: 187.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+11.2% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Minnesota: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+2.4%
Washington: 74.4%
vs
Minnesota: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
4.0
11
WSH Score
7.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 8.5
6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.6 / 6.3
4.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
10.0 / 12.8
10.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.5
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIN
WSH
MIN
ML
57%
92-69
52%
84-78
54%
87-74
50%
80-81
ATS
58%
93-68
59%
95-67
57%
91-70
59%
95-66
TTL
50%
77-78-6
51%
78-75-9
42%
65-90-6
53%
80-72-9
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