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CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

18-18  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, May 5 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

16-19  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Colin Holderman
STARTING PITCHER

Colin Holderman

#35 | Relief Pitcher
@
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Colin Holderman None-None 1.50 -- 2.0 3
Lucas Erceg None-None 3.52 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.50 Ldr ERA 3.52
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
0%
📊
ROYALS
100%
GUARDIANS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
15.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

40.1%

Royals Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

16.3%

KC By 1-2 runs

16.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
8
CLEVELAND
7
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
2
CLEVELAND
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Guardians Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 15.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CLE @ KC 2 - 3
Sep 26, 2026 CLE @ KC 11 - 5
Sep 25, 2026 CLE @ KC 12 - 9
Aug 30, 2026 KC @ CLE 1 - 11
Aug 29, 2026 KC @ CLE 8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.316
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.696
OPS
▲ .718
162
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +35.0% more
Cleveland: 0.7 vs Kansas City: 0.3
Walks (L5) +21.3% more
Cleveland: 3.3 vs Kansas City: 2.6
Home Runs (Season) +4.9% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Cleveland: 162.0
Slugging Pct (Season) +2.2%
Kansas City: 40.2% vs Cleveland: 38.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 8.0 3
KC Score 7.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 7.8 8.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.2 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 7.5 5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 13.2 / 13.0 16.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.3 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CLE
KC
CLE
ML
55% 89-72
54% 87-74
56% 90-70
49% 80-82
ATS
57% 91-70
58% 93-68
58% 93-67
59% 95-67
TTL
58% 90-64-7
55% 88-71-2
54% 83-70-7
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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