PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
19-16 | Road
0
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
16-17 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yohan Ramirez
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brandyn Garcia
#55 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yohan Ramirez | None-None | 4.09 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Brandyn Garcia | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.09
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
PIRATES
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
PIT By 1-2 runs
13.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
7.8%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Push
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 29, 2026
ARI @ PIT
3 - 0
Jul 28, 2026
ARI @ PIT
8 - 7
Jul 27, 2026
ARI @ PIT
2 - 3
May 7, 2026
PIT @ ARI
4 - 2
May 6, 2026
PIT @ ARI
1 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.734
▲
OPS
.720
186
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+105.0% more
Arizona: 4.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 2.4
Home Runs (L5)
+32.0% more
Arizona: 1.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+28.6% more
Pittsburgh: 9.8
vs
Arizona: 7.0
Hits (L5)
+28.1% more
Pittsburgh: 10.1
vs
Arizona: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.0
0
ARI Score
4.0
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 10.1
9.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 9.8
9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 15.9
15.0 / 4.0
Walks
4.9 / 2.4
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
PIT
ARI
PIT
ML
54%
87-74
52%
82-77
54%
86-74
52%
85-78
ATS
57%
91-70
54%
86-73
56%
89-71
50%
81-82
TTL
52%
80-73-8
47%
72-81-6
49%
73-77-9
50%
79-78-6
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