NEW YORK
METSNYM
12-22 | Road
4
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
14-21 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Devin Williams
#38 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brennan Bernardino
#83 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Williams | None-None | 6.55 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Brennan Bernardino | None-None | 1.88 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.55
ERA
Ldr 1.88
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
METS
100%
ROCKIES
0%
METS
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
NYM By 1-2 runs
16.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
10.6%
COL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
COL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Colorado
5
COLORADO
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Colorado
5
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Rockies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u10.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u10.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 7, 2026
NYM @ COL
2 - 6
May 6, 2026
NYM @ COL
10 - 5
May 4, 2026
NYM @ COL
4 - 2
Apr 26, 2026
COL @ NYM
3 - 1
Apr 24, 2026
COL @ NYM
4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.322
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.705
OPS
▲
.739
204
▲
Home Runs
180
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+45.2% more
Colorado: 4.4
vs
New York: 3.0
Home Runs (L5)
+28.9% more
Colorado: 1.5
vs
New York: 1.1
Total Bases (L5)
+24.3% more
Colorado: 15.3
vs
New York: 12.3
Hits (L5)
+17.3% more
Colorado: 8.9
vs
New York: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
4.0
4
COL Score
5.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.9 / 7.6
5.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.1
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 10.8
8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
15.3 / 12.3
10.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.4 / 3.0
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
Advantage
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
NYM
COL
NYM
ML
60%
97-64
50%
79-80
55%
88-73
48%
76-83
ATS
60%
97-64
58%
93-66
52%
83-78
49%
78-81
TTL
60%
93-62-6
55%
80-66-13
50%
77-78-6
51%
74-72-13
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